It's 9AM

Too old and too mean

It’s going to happen this year, he said

When six months ago, they predicted five

5 Years before our world changes

Again

As far as predictions go, they’re easy

Pick a date, pick a statement

And state it

I predict that something huge will happen this summer to affect mid-term elections in November

More riots and unrest, to show how dissatisfied people are

A couple of killings that can be plastered across the headlines

And three days before the vote, an America is tough response to somebody

A CIA analyst says Al-Queda and the Taliban have teamed up in America for soft target shootings

Micro attacks on a massive scale to strike fear into the hearts of the unbelievers

And also to keep dogs from inside the house because they are unclean

And bacon outside of our mouth because pork is the Great Satan

So I predict something is going to happen this summer to shift Congress back to an even split or to Democrat held

And if early polls show one side leading over the other, or that shift not going to happen

I predict more chaos, and unrest, and screaming heads that should be talking instead

See how easy it is to predict something

Except when he said AI gets General Intelligence by 2026 now

I was kinda skeptical

I’ve been trying to build a personal assistant with AI on my phone

I want to take the phone and order a rolling robot from Amazon

Then duct tape the phone to it’s face so my virtual PA follows me around all the time

Ready to do my bidding

Like schedule this task, or research this fact, or search up who has a good happy hour and is a place I’ve never been

I’ll have a droid for less than $100 and get me ready for the next phase

Because right now, any AI can work with can’t do as much as I’d like

Now I know I was spoiled on C3PO and R2-D2

and robot from Lost in Space who warned Will Robinson that Danger was afoot

And was probably hoping for Tris from Blade Runner more than anything

Because if I can get a personal assistant who looks like Daryl Hannah, sign me up

But it just doesn’t feel like we’re there yet

Or maybe I’m just old school-ish with my oversized giant wall calendar

And a plan to buy an old Smart TV and plug in an HDMI stick to turn it into a giant whiteboard

But AGI is coming this year, he said

And I read a white paper by an engineer who said that 90% of coding of AI is now done by AI, and self correction happens at 97% of the time

His work with coding showed him that AI codes itself faster, better and with more iterations in the same amount of time that humans can do one

That’s write, launch, correct at speeds we can’t comprehend

And it’s at scale

He used a formula I didn’t understand but basically, AI improves at a rate of 1% per day, and at the end of 30 days, it improves at 100% per day, and at the end of the next 30 days, it’s improving at 1000% per day.

Now you know I’m a fan of the 1% rule

I can’t comprehend a 1000% improvement every day stacked over 30 days

He was quick to point it that it’s not doing that yet, and the month window was just for example, for now

There are guardrails in place and guidelines

But…

Artificial General Intelligence will probably come out this year by Fall

Which means a lot of folks need to be thinking about five years from now

Because there are a lot of careers that will become obsolete as soon as it does

I predict those jobs will continue to exist because we dig in our heels

But as Boards of Directors start to learn that they can replace entire divisions of “people” with “AI Agents” who are smarter, think faster, and better problem solvers for 1/100th the cost

What do you think a Board of Directors will do?

Well, let’s ask UPS what they would do?

Or Amazon?

Both have mostly Blue Collar warehouse workers as the main body of their work force.

Amazon has replaced a lot of those workers with rolling robots to move items, robot hands to pick and pack items, robot arms to place items and have started building robot delivery fleets in drone and auto format.

So they laid off 33,000 people in December and January.

UPS lost the Amazon contract, and farmed out last mile delivery to the Postal Service.

Their sorting centers are moving to robot/AI as well.

The Atlanta Hub added robots three years ago, and phased out warehouse workers.

Robots stack better, they don’t throw packages, they don’t stack them in the back of tractor trailers in a haphazard fashion, they don’t take breaks unless they break down, they don’t show up high or go to the parking lot to get high at lunch, they don’t file workman’s comp, they don’t show up late, or not show up at all,

And UPS saw cost savings in those measures (fewer insurance claims, fewer problems with efficiency)

And took a page out of Amazon’s playbook to lay off 45,000 workers in January

Law Firms aren’t hiring law grads, because AI does all the work of new graduates better and faster and cheaper

Even a senior partner at a firm in NYC said he spends the majority of the time double checking briefs built by AI, the same thing he did for new lawyers, and there are fewer mistakes, so few that he predicts even he will be unnecessary in five years

I’ve been thinking about which jobs won’t be affected by AI,

And even blue collar is at risk

Not even “at risk” because it’s coming

And Five Years from now, we’ll have a problem

Because UPS and Amazon started retraining some workers to be bot doctors

and AI fixers

But there won’t be enough of those jobs to satisfy the labor market

Even when AI and bots are doing everything

Which will lead to more chaos and unrest and problems

So if we know a date is coming, where a potential “disaster” is going to happen

We should prepare for it now, right?

We should put the best and brightest minds on it, and work with AGI which has the sum total of human knowledge at it’s finger tips

And figure it out

I predict we won’t

I predict we’re just going to stick a collective head in the sand instead of being ready for as this happens

Because it’s not just the US, it’s every country

China, Russia, UK, Europe, Canada all have large active AI programs

So it’s not a matter of turning it off

And there will be bad actors, which will make the problem worse

There will be articles written by AI talking about how humans long for a connection to other humans

If you like irony

But what won’t happen is a prep

When a weather man comes on the TV to lie about his forecast and says “A WINTER STORM IS COMING”

Everybody goes to the store to buy milk, eggs and bread.

And the liquor store to stock up on essentials

So they can be ready if and when the prediction comes true

I don’t know if AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is going to be one huge storm,

or a series of fronts that bash against our collective attention like waves washing on a beach

Carrying away how much we care a little at a time, like the water erodes the sand

But it’s not coming.

It’s here. Now.

I predict we’re gonna be alright.

If we can just get in it together.

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)Thanks for being here.

Let’s make some “holy hell” moments happen.

Stay dangerous,

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