It's 9AM
I’m not sure what you would call it.
A person who constantly watches home prices and construction costs in the area.
There are a lot of people who like looking at houses.
Inside and out.
And some realtors know their comps like the back of their hands.
And then…
There are the hobbyists.
Guys and gals like me who maybe have flipped a few (dozen) homes and peruse local listings, study the market, and just sort of follow along.
A constant influx of data into the brain, just to “keep up with things.”
Especially when home prices soared over the past two years.
And since I follow along so many areas, and so much info from Florida to Arkansas to Texas to California.
Yes, states with city populations larger than the entire state I’m living in.
I watch/see and wonder about trends.
And the message we are getting.
Because it’s wrong.
House prices are dropping in our area by tens of thousands of dollars.
Every day, I get a notice that a particular home has lowered their price.
Not because their costs suddenly decreased.
But because the builder decided to take less money.
They lowered their profit to move inventory.
I can’t say I blame them.
At the edge of my neighborhood, they just stripped a wooded area down to the dirt in prep for putting in a dozen new homes.
And a dozen more are being built along a new road addition just across the busy boulevard.
Not to mention the over 100 empty older homes sitting in the downtown area.
And the hundred more I counted on a trip through the Delta earlier this summer.
There’s not really a housing shortage.
I think it’s a sales tactic used to keep prices at a certain level.
Because I know a builder has costs.
Land. Permits. Taxes. Contractors. Sub-contractors. Dirt Work. Site prep. Utility fees. Insurance. Commissions. Signage.
And more.
I know, because when Papaw was working houses, he had to deal with all of it, and I got to watch.
Which is why he recommended to me to be very careful when dealing with city hall.
City hall will try to take all of your profit and put it in their pocket, he said.
He was a conservative man, a conservative thinker, and he had a deep mistrust of big government.
A mistrust I carry today.
But he would twirl in his grave at how home prices in a dying town like Pine Bluff have popped to over $100 per square foot in some spots.
In a town with no growth, little industry and a casino where no one can point to where the tax dollars are going, home prices are going up only because they are going up everywhere else.
No laws of supply and demand are at work.
In fact, there is an abundance of supply and little demand, which by normal standards should make prices go down.
And they are.
Little by little.
Just not to the level that is expected.
If you’ll recall this summer, I made a few moves and offers on some stuff.
The people I spoke with seemed almost delusional with their reasons for an asking price.
I only say that because I try to use logic to determine if it’s right.
There’s a building on Main Street downtown I wouldn’t mind owning.
A man from out of town, a soldier, retired to Pine Bluff and bought it for $36,000 at a time when Main Street was shut down.
Because a building collapsed across the road and the city was arguing with the owner over who was going to pay to clean it up.
The building I was interested in has been empty since 1995.
Zero improvements. Zero tenants. Needs a new roof. New plumbing and electric.
It is basically a shell, across the street from a building built in the same year, that is only three walls.
The back wall crumbled with the roof a decade ago, so all that’s left standing are three open walls to the sky.
When a new entity started making a plan to turn downtown PB into a destination, the owners of both those buildings decided to put them up for sale.
The one I want is asking a half a million dollars.
The one across the street with no roof, and no back wall is only two hundred thousand.
Prices that would be aligned IF the first four blocks of downtown were developed and brought tourists into the destination each weekend.
They are not. They do not.
But those owners have talked to realtors who have built images and promises of what might be.
Instead of what is.
And I think that’s going on in a lot of the market across the US.
People, whether it be commissioned sales types (real estate agents) or politicians or snake oil salesmen have painted this picture of a market that doesn’t fit reality.
And the market responded to that painted image of shortages, and cost overruns and just plain lack.
So that the reality of the housing market became what they said it was.
Despite evidence to the contrary.
Like thousands of empty homes everywhere.
Like hundreds of empty buildings.
Now don’t get me wrong, I do know wages have gone up.
And insurance.
Geez, my car insurance alone jumped by $50 a month this year, because of other drivers.
I haven’t had an accident nor been in one, nor do I drive unsafe. Just a person who has to pay more for other people’s bad decisions.
Which is what I think happened in the housing market.
Maybe some other markets too, I just don’t pay as much attention to them.
I wish I had an answer to why we fall for it.
I do know some of the marketing secrets behind it, how the psychology of sales manipulates people into doing the things we do.
Social pressure, peer pressure, FOMO (fear of missing out), design shows, design teams, and more.
I’m not immune to some of it, despite wanting my “don’t give a f%ck” to really kick into high gear.
Still, there is some good news.
I think housing prices are going to drop by another 10%, unless we get a full blown economic crisis, which I peg at 50.
We either will or we won’t.
But, get an old house, if you are in the market, and make it into something special.
Add an addition, build a deck, paint everything yourself, refinish the floors, refinish the cabinets and add six to eight inches of insulation wherever you can.
Turn it into your own slice of paradise.
Put a garden in the back.
Plus, let me know if you try the brownie pie recipe. Fall falling makes me want to bake more.
Check out this future! Have you seen this in your town yet?
Go grab Stolen Relics - The Old Magic Series
PLUS
AND
When you upgrade to paid, get free books and more EXCLUSIVE content. Consider monthly or annual and watch your inbox for awesome treats.
random question, but is the recipe calling for salted or unsalted butter (i’ve never baked in my life but this looks too good to pass).